Optimising a Probabilistic Model of the Development of Play in Soccer

We present a probabilistic model based on the one developed by Hernández Mendo and Anguera (Revista de Psicologíca Social, 16(1), 71–93, 2001). Here we have tried to break down the interaction contexts that the opposing teams are able to generate and transform during the game. We are aware that a given player or team does not produce consistent behaviour in similar situations. However, a degree of uncertainty is assumed to exist regarding whether the results obtained are a specific function of the analysis used. In order to carry out this research a category system which optimized that used in the previous model was developed. This system should enable the interaction between teams to be observed within the actual play of a soccer game. A lag sequential analysis was performed on the basis of a coding of the behavioural flow. After describing the behavioural patterns obtained a probabilistic model of the development of play in soccer is proposed.     

供应链中基于质量控制的契约模型分析

供应链中的业务外包策略充分发挥了供应链节点企业的核心竞争力，但同时存在产品质量难以控制的问题。本文通过构建以价格折扣和质保金为参数的契约模型，分析了制造商在非对称信息条件下对业务外包产品进行质量控制的最优契约设计问题。     

"轮"语——景观设计中的意象创造

“如果人们期望的是一种能够唤起丰富生动的意象的环境,那么人们也期望这种意象能够传播和适应实际变化所需,人们还期望从中发展出新的群体、新的意义和新的诗意。”本文以“轮”为象,以“轮”语之意象阐述了遵义市城市北入口景观方案设计的思路。     

我国铁路行包运输统计指标体系的基本框架研究

铁路行包运输统计指标体系是铁路行包运输统计工作的重要载体.本文分析了当前我国铁路行包运输统计指标体系存在的问题,讨论了铁路运输业统计指标体系的设计原则,设计了铁路行包运输统计指标体系的基本框架.     

In at the deep end: Conducting processual research on organisational change

This article provides a series of reflections on the practice of carrying out processual research on organisational change. At a broad level, some of the main tasks associated with conducting company case studies are described and the benefits of this approach for dealing with complex change data are outlined. At a more specific level, the article addresses three main areas tied to the actual “doing” of processual research. First, the notion of tacit knowledge and “getting your hands dirty” by engaging in ongoing in-depth fieldwork. Second, the design and implementation of a longitudinal case study research programme. Third, the advantages and concerns of combining a range of different data collecting techniques in carrying out processual studies. Overall, the main intention is to provide some useful reflections and practical insights, as well as providing something of the flavour of carrying out this type of research.     

等截面斜腿刚构桥的几何布局优化

以应力平方均值最小为优化目标，建立了跨越V形谷的等截面斜腿刚构桥在列车荷载和自重共同作用下的布局静力优化的数学模型，采用直接搜索法进行了设计变量的寻优。     

基于企业生命周期的财务控制体系设计

财务控制是企业财务管理的核心环节,控制的核心是控制体系的设计。企业在不同的发展阶段应采取不同的财务控制制度。文中将企业生命周期纳入财务控制体系设计中,从企业生命周期的新视角构建企业的财务控制体系,以期为我国处于不同生命周期的企业在构造财务控制体系时提供借鉴。     

基于遗传算法的物流中心区域布置技术

对物流中心进行全参数化研究。充分考虑了区域形状,通道等实际因素,采用遗传算法解决区域布置问题,使布置结果更具实用性。     

基于供应链管理的物流信息平台设计研究

应用供应链管理的思想,结合我国物流信息平台建设的实际情况,从供应链管理的角度对现代物流信息平台的主要目标和功能进行研究,并设计平台的总体结构框架和详细功能,最后给出平台构建的策略和原则。     

Bayesian life test planning for the Weibull distribution with given shape parameter

This paper describes Bayesian methods for life test planning with Type II censored data from a Weibull distribution, when the Weibull shape parameter is given. We use conjugate prior distributions and criteria based on estimating a quantile of interest of the lifetime distribution. One criterion is based on a precision factor for a credibility interval for a distribution quantile and the other is based on the length of the credibility interval. We provide simple closed form expressions for the relationship between the needed number of failures and the precision criteria. Examples are used to illustrate the results.Received: October 2002 / Revised: March 2004